Optimism Bias
A recent blogpost from Unawoken spoke about middle-aged people with optimism biases. At the time I didn’t think much of it because the person in question believed that if one believes in something, he/she could do anything. Obviously, I thought this person was way out there and let it go.
But it later occurred to me that an optimism bias is important. Having a personality like mine where I oscillate between cup-half-empty to cup-half-full (mostly the former), I am in favour of, even a forced, an optimism bias. An optimistic outlook on life is simply necessary to be able to cope with life, to get one out of bed, go about their business. Without it, everyday becomes a burden. Optimism bias helps in other ways as well. I’ve seen enough evidence where a propitious outlook on ones own abilities and advertising it unabashedly gets people ahead in their careers. An optimistic person is more inclined to reach out to people and have more friends and do things with them. Simply put, optimism sells.
Negative emotions or outlook, on the other hand, keeps a person from doing things, awkward in social situations, shunned by people, lonely, unhappy. They may be the most realistic people around and may see the world as it really is and may call a spade a spade. But, most people don’t want to hear them or hang around them.
The downside of optimism bias is that one can take it a little too far. It might make people set unrealistic goals. It might make one expect too much from themselves, their friends and relationships and when those expectations aren’t met, they might come crashing down.
It is a fine balance to keep an optimistic outlook that is rooted in reality but not bogged down by reality. Who said life was easy?
Justuju 
"about middle-aged people with optimism biases"- My post was about one specific pre-middle age person with an optimism bias."Obviously, I thought this person was way out there and let it go."- Was he really out there? To me, he seemed liked an above averagely successful, smart, normal person in every way: had a wife, kids, seemed healthy and happy with no other personality ticks.I agree with the rest of your post on how being optimistic has real world advantages, and how people who are biased the other way (pessimistic bias) can make their life better by overriding their bias through effort."They may be the most realistic people around and may see the world as it really is and may call a spade a spade."- I think you are refering to "Depressive Realism". Depressive Realism was studied and held to be true for years before it got challenged. However, current research seems to show that it is a specific kind of bias: "Depressive realists" seem to correctly infer that they do not have control over the situations they do not have control on; but incorrectly infer that they do not have control over situations they do have control on — compared to the rest of the pack.
"Was he really out there? To me, he seemed liked an above averagely successful, smart, normal person in every way: had a wife, kids, seemed healthy and happy with no other personality ticks."Moreover, I hear such outrageous soundbites all the time on twitter and FB status updates. Why is this person out there? It seems to me that this person is quite the norm.
Unawoken, thanks for your comments. What I meant by 'out there' was about what he said, 'if you really believe in something, you can do it'. I thought that belief is kinda out there (like the flying). Sorry about not being clear.About depressive realism, I guess you are right, I didn't know there was a term for it. I generally meant those who don't have an optimism bias. Good to know, thanks.
Nice take, Justuju. The issue I take with this "rabidly self-righteous pursuit of realism" (quotes mine, and adjectives also mine) is that it overlooks our role as citizens within a social "complex".We don't live in splendid ivory-tower isolation, facing merely the challenges and situations found in a world composed of "physical reality" where we can curb our optimism and be perfectly restrained and objective. Rather, we actually live in a sort of "crowded gutter", inhabited by a large number of other beings (all of whom are humans, many of whom are realistic even to the extent their mental machinery permits, and most of whom have never thought about supressing, let alone uprooting their own optimism bias, even if they are vaguely aware of it). As long as we respect their lack of awareness, and avoid rocking their little, underpowered boats by bursting their rosy bubbles, or washing over them with waves of harsh reality derived through high-octane intellectualism, or expensive [in time, energy, education] empiricism I think the curbing of one's own optimism bias is just fine.I am optimistic that one day, I can argue why the optimism bias is a good thing. Pure realism restricts us to engage with the universe "as is", and produces a paralysis of action. Optimism allows us to see "parallel universes" (that can be, but are not yet), and gives us the wherewithal to try and make those parallel universes supercede existing reality. But for now, I will be realistic, that my research and clarity of writing are yet to evolve, till I can make that argument forcefully enough. I remain hopeful though, and may stay that way well into my middle age. Cheers!
Justuju:"It is a fine balance to keep an optimistic outlook that is rooted in reality but not bogged down by reality. Who said life was easy?"Carpe Diem:"I am optimistic that one day, I can argue why the optimism bias is a good thing.""till I can make that argument forcefully enough."http://thingsundone.wordpress.com/2008/06/20/58/
So, Mr. Unawoken. Have you come around yet? What else will it take?
@Carpe DiemCome around to desiring an optimism bias? Because that would make me happy? I am not sure what you want me to conclude on this. But I am actually still quite surprised at your expressed preference and continued justification of optimism (bias). I agree that it keeps the world going round and round, which to some extent is desirable. But I am not sure why lubing up people w optimism is the bees knees. Sure, it will sell a lot more products and keep people doin' whatever it is they are doing.
We'd like people to be optimistic not because it is the bees knees (or because it will sell more products, though that is good also) but because the vast majority of them lack the ability to absorb the dark depression of the "other view" of depressive realism (and still function). Optimists engage in problem solving, altruism, courtesy, and other cooperative behaviors fuelled by their hope for a "better" alternative reality. A harder (more pessimistic) realism only breeds caution, mistrust, inaction, lethargy, withdrawal, and possibly even self-centric aggressive rapacity (unless it is tempered with enlightenment, which is a pretty rare thing to attain).
Unawoken,I believe that I am an optimist rooted in reality. While I agree with you that realism is important, I fear that it might prevent people from visualizing a better world and discourage people from trying to influence positive changes in the world. (here, I'm assuming that one only has control over his/her own emotions and actions and no control over other people) This is why I struggle to understand why optimism, by itself, is bad. In fact, I think you are also a cautious optimist in many ways as is evidenced by your blogposts and FB posts. Am I wrong?Finally, I think the argument here is about unrealistic optimism and what most people can handle and in that I agree with you that rosy eyed optimism is bad but I agree with Amit that most people do need optimism bias as they can't handle realism without slipping into depression.
Justuju,I am all for innovation and forward-lookingness, and in that sense yes, I am for optimism. What I am not for, is not understanding the instinctive bias towards it. I agree with you and Carpe Diem that it (understanding) is not easy though.
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/335187/title/A_mind_for_optimism